Famous Thinkers Thinking about Ignorance...
"A wise man proportions his beliefs to the evidence."
--David Hume
"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."
--Carl Sagan
Arguments From Ignorance: Argument from Ignorance, Bayesian Reasoning, and the Nature of Induction
A. The argument from ignorance and its relationship to burden of proof: appropriate vs inappropriate burdens of proof, comparing probabilities.
Example: White raven vs black ravens
B. Conspiracy Friends: Argument from ignorance, argument from personal incredulity, anomaly hunting
Examples and Subjects Where The Argument from Ignorance, Is Commonly Found
Link to Unexplained Escape video
You can't prove that this isn't real...
Mumbai Weeping statue
Miracles graph
GMO safety
Ghosts/Paranormal/UFOs
Creationism
Bigfoot
Unicorns
Crop circles
Natural News On Missing Malaysian Airlines Flight
(Last section)
Pumapunku (Arg from personal incredulity, false dichotomy, arg from ignorance, arg from unqualified authority)
3:20-4:50, 5:10-5:35, 6:10-6:35, 7:30-8:00, 8:40, 12:20, 23:20-24:10
25:35 (gateway) 27:27-28:20
Puma punku AA debunk
Anomaly Hunting:
E.g.,
1. While writing for the opinion column in Utusan Malaysia's weekend edition called Mingguan Malaysia, he asked if this was the work of "certain parties" to put the nation's relations with China in "jeopardy," according to The Malaysian Insider. Furthermore, he cited facts and arguments as an evidence to support his claim of blaming the CIA for MH370 disappearance.
The editor also raised questions on CNN's role. He noted CNN was all "emotional" when Malaysia denied CIA to head the search and rescue mission for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.
The editor also raised questions on CNN's role. He noted CNN was all "emotional" when Malaysia denied CIA to head the search and rescue mission for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.
Full article
Example of anomaly hunting:
The man on the roof in the Boston bombing
The man with the umbrella at the Kennedy assassination
Summary of Important Points:
1. Formal structure of the Argument from Ignorance
P2: There has been a reasonable search for the relevant evidence by whomever is qualified to do so.
C: Therefore, we should accept the claim as true/more probable than not.
Version 2
P1: There's no (good) evidence to prove the claim.
P2: There has been a reasonable search for the relevant evidence by whomever is qualified to do so.
C: Therefore, we should reject the claim as improbable/false.
A strong version of an argument from ignorance has good evidence for (P2). A weak version has little or weak support in (P2).
2. Argument from personal incredulity: When someone argues against a claim using as support their own personal personal inability to believe or understand contravening evidence. This is a subspecies of argument from illegitimate authority.
3. Anomaly Hunting: Closely related to motivated reasoning and backwards thinking. The practice of ascribing evidentiary weight to randomness.
All three of these argument forms are commonly found in conspiracy thinking.
Business:
1. Tests
a. My grandmother's advice
b. My proposal
Homework 13A
Part 1 Find an article/website/youtube video on one of the following: UFOs, bigfoot, the missing Malaysian airlines flight, GMOs, crop circles, ghosts, 911 conspiracy, moonlanding conspiracy, any conspiracy on http://whale.to/. Identify at least one example of argument from ignorance or argument from personal incredulity and one instance of anomaly hunting.
Part 2 P. 258 Ex. 10B Q2 (a), (b), (c)
Example of anomaly hunting:
The man on the roof in the Boston bombing
The man with the umbrella at the Kennedy assassination
Summary of Important Points:
1. Formal structure of the Argument from Ignorance
Version 1
P1: There's no (good) evidence to disprove the claim.P2: There has been a reasonable search for the relevant evidence by whomever is qualified to do so.
C: Therefore, we should accept the claim as true/more probable than not.
Version 2
P1: There's no (good) evidence to prove the claim.
P2: There has been a reasonable search for the relevant evidence by whomever is qualified to do so.
C: Therefore, we should reject the claim as improbable/false.
A strong version of an argument from ignorance has good evidence for (P2). A weak version has little or weak support in (P2).
2. Argument from personal incredulity: When someone argues against a claim using as support their own personal personal inability to believe or understand contravening evidence. This is a subspecies of argument from illegitimate authority.
3. Anomaly Hunting: Closely related to motivated reasoning and backwards thinking. The practice of ascribing evidentiary weight to randomness.
All three of these argument forms are commonly found in conspiracy thinking.
Business:
1. Tests
a. My grandmother's advice
b. My proposal
Homework 13A
Part 1 Find an article/website/youtube video on one of the following: UFOs, bigfoot, the missing Malaysian airlines flight, GMOs, crop circles, ghosts, 911 conspiracy, moonlanding conspiracy, any conspiracy on http://whale.to/. Identify at least one example of argument from ignorance or argument from personal incredulity and one instance of anomaly hunting.
Part 2 P. 258 Ex. 10B Q2 (a), (b), (c)
No comments:
Post a Comment